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Egypt vs South Africa

Sun 4 Oct, 18:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

Egypt

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 0.74 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Egypt last 3 at home: 1W-2D-0L (scored 2, conceded 1)

5 South Africa last 4 away: 1W-2D-1L (scored 7, conceded 4)

6 H2H (4): South Africa lead 2-1 (1D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 50%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Egypt with an estimated 51% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.74-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Egypt have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 2, conceding 1), while South Africa have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 4). South Africa lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings.