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Tajikistan vs Palestine

Mon 28 Sept, 12:00

FT 2-4

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 36%

Palestine

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 2-4

Predicted: 0-1 — Winner: Correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Tajikistan last 5 at home: 2W-3D-0L (scored 9, conceded 5)

6 Palestine last 3 away: 0W-3D-0L (scored 0, conceded 0)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Palestine with an estimated 36% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward Tajikistan, while the blended pick still favours Palestine, so treat this one with extra caution. Tajikistan have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 5), while Palestine have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 0, conceding 0).