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Japan vs Venezuela

Mon 28 Sept, 10:25

FT 2-1

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 63%

Japan

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 3-0 — Winner: Correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 11pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.74

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Japan last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 10, conceded 2)

6 Venezuela last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 2, conceded 6)

7 H2H (2): Venezuela lead 1-0 (1D), avg 3.5 goals, BTTS 100%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Japan with an estimated 63% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.74 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Japan than the model is — the blend sits 11 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Japan have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 2), while Venezuela have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 6). Venezuela lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings.