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South Korea vs Uruguay

Mon 28 Sept, 11:00

FT 1-4

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 52%

South Korea

Predicted Winner

2-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 1-4

Predicted: 2-0 — Winner: Incorrect

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 13pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.22 - 0.49

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 South Korea last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 11, conceded 5)

6 Uruguay last 5 away: 0W-3D-2L (scored 4, conceded 10)

7 H2H (4): Uruguay lead 2-1 (1D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 75%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours South Korea with an estimated 52% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.22-0.49 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for South Korea runs 13 points above the market's fair price. South Korea have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 5), while Uruguay have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 10). Uruguay lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 75% of meetings.