Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty

Thu 5 Nov, 17:45

FT 1-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 67%

Atalanta

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-1

Predicted: 3-0. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 16pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.01 - 0.34

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Atalanta last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 11, conceded 11)

6 Kairat Almaty last 4 away: 1W-2D-1L (scored 6, conceded 4)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Atalanta with an estimated 67% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.01-0.34 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Atalanta than the model is — the blend sits 16 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Atalanta have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 11), while Kairat Almaty have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 4).