Twente vs Pafos

Thu 5 Nov, 20:00

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

HIGH 74%

Twente

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.46 - 0.25

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Twente last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 14, conceded 4)

5 Pafos last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 7, conceded 6)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Twente with an estimated 74% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.46-0.25 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Twente have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 14, conceding 4), while Pafos have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 6).