Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth

Thu 5 Nov, 17:45

FT 1-3

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 58%

Bournemouth

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-3

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.66 - 1.32

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Sparta Praha last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 13, conceded 7)

6 Bournemouth last 3 away: 2W-0D-1L (scored 6, conceded 6)

7 Sparta Praha without: M. Andersen, A. Karabec (+12 more)

8 Bournemouth without: M. Aarons, J. Araujo (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bournemouth with an estimated 58% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.66-1.32 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bournemouth, so treat this one with extra caution. Sparta Praha have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 13, conceding 7), while Bournemouth have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 6). Sparta Praha without: M. Andersen, A. Karabec (+12 more); Bournemouth without: M. Aarons, J. Araujo (+14 more).