Real Sociedad vs Lyon

Thu 5 Nov, 17:45

FT 1-1

AI Prediction

LOW 49%

Real Sociedad

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.32 - 1.32

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Real Sociedad last 5 at home: 2W-0D-3L (scored 6, conceded 9)

6 Lyon last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 3, conceded 8)

7 H2H (2): Real Sociedad lead 2-0 (0D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 0%

8 Real Sociedad without: A. Odriozola, L. Beitia (+4 more)

9 Lyon without: S. Kango, L. Openda (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Real Sociedad with an estimated 49% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.32-1.32 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Lyon, while the blended pick still favours Real Sociedad, so treat this one with extra caution. Real Sociedad lead the head-to-head 2-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings. Real Sociedad have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 9), while Lyon have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 8). Real Sociedad without: A. Odriozola, L. Beitia (+4 more); Lyon without: S. Kango, L. Openda (+8 more).