NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia

Thu 5 Nov, 17:45

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

LOW 40%

NEC Nijmegen

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.44 - 0.88

4 NEC Nijmegen last 5 at home: 0W-5D-0L (scored 8, conceded 8)

5 Omonia Nicosia last 4 away: 3W-0D-1L (scored 10, conceded 3)

6 NEC Nijmegen without: M. Bakker, D. Geiger (+14 more)

7 Omonia Nicosia without: C. Eiting, F. Kitsos (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours NEC Nijmegen with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (0.44-0.88 goals). Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Omonia Nicosia, while the blended pick still favours NEC Nijmegen, so treat this one with extra caution. NEC Nijmegen have won 0, drawn 5 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 8), while Omonia Nicosia have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 10, conceding 3). NEC Nijmegen without: M. Bakker, D. Geiger (+14 more); Omonia Nicosia without: C. Eiting, F. Kitsos (+4 more).