Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg

Thu 5 Nov, 17:45

FT 2-0

AI Prediction

LOW 49%

Anderlecht

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-0

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.07 - 1.45

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Anderlecht last 4 at home: 3W-0D-1L (scored 11, conceded 3)

5 Red Bull Salzburg last 5 away: 3W-2D-0L (scored 9, conceded 5)

6 Anderlecht without: I. Camara, L. Hey (+8 more)

7 Red Bull Salzburg without: E. Aguilar, A. Chase (+20 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Anderlecht with an estimated 49% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.07-1.45 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Anderlecht have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 11, conceding 3), while Red Bull Salzburg have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 5). Anderlecht without: I. Camara, L. Hey (+8 more); Red Bull Salzburg without: E. Aguilar, A. Chase (+20 more).