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Mexico vs Chile

Wed 7 Oct, 02:30

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 64%

Mexico

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.78 - 0.46

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Mexico last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 7, conceded 5)

5 Chile last 5 away: 1W-0D-4L (scored 6, conceded 12)

6 H2H (5): Chile lead 2-1 (2D), avg 4.4 goals, BTTS 60%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Mexico with an estimated 64% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.78-0.46 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Mexico have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 5), while Chile have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 12). Chile lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 4.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings.