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USA vs Chile

Wed 30 Sept, 00:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 54%

USA

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 10pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.98 - 1.78

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 USA last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 13, conceded 6)

6 Chile last 5 away: 2W-0D-3L (scored 6, conceded 8)

7 H2H (1): even, 1D, avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 100%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours USA with an estimated 54% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.98-1.78 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in USA than the model is — the blend sits 10 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. USA have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 13, conceding 6), while Chile have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 8). All 1 of their last meetings have ended in a draw, averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings.