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Mexico vs Peru

Wed 30 Sept, 01:00

🎯 AI Prediction

HIGH 70%

Mexico

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.46 - 0.32

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Mexico last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 8, conceded 4)

5 Peru last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 5, conceded 10)

6 H2H (1): Mexico lead 1-0 (0D), avg 1.0 goals, BTTS 0%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Mexico with an estimated 70% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.46-0.32 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Mexico have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 4), while Peru have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 10). Mexico lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 1.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings.