Canada vs Ireland

Canada favored at 1.50 despite significant injuries (Davies, David, Priso out; Shaffelburg doubtful). Both teams show identical recent form: 1.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per match. Ireland's last 3 matches are losses (form collapse), while Canada drew last match and won 5-4 two matches ago. Friendly context and short turnaround (Canada played 3 days ago) favor the more stable side. BTTS appears underpriced at 45.5% given both teams' 33-50% BTTS rates in recent form. Over 2.5 at 48.1% fair despite low scoring; combined xG suggests 2.3-2.5 range. Home advantage in friendlies is real but injuries are a drag. Market odds reasonable but slight value in BTTS and Over.

Canada favored despite injuries; Ireland in form collapse (L3); home advantage in friendlies real, but confidence capped by injury toll.

Ireland's 33% BTTS rate and Canada's recent 5-4 win suggest both teams can score; market at 45.5% underprices this relative to recent form.

Combined expected goals ~2.3-2.5; Canada's 5-4 win two matches ago and friendly context favor attacking play; market at 48.1% is close but slightly undervalues scoring.

Canada or draw heavily favored; 1X at 1.11 (90.1%) is strong value given Ireland's form collapse and Canada's home advantage.