1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen

Sun 8 Nov, 14:30

FT 1-2

AI Prediction

LOW 40%

Bayer Leverkusen

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-2

Predicted: 1-2. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.35 - 1.14

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 1. FC Köln last 5 at home: 3W-2D-0L (scored 11, conceded 4)

6 Bayer Leverkusen last 4 away: 3W-0D-1L (scored 10, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Bayer Leverkusen lead 7-2 (1D), avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 50%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bayer Leverkusen with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.35-1.14 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward 1. FC Köln, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bayer Leverkusen, so treat this one with extra caution. Bayer Leverkusen lead the head-to-head 7-2 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. 1. FC Köln have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 4), while Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 10, conceding 6).