SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin

Sun 8 Nov, 16:30

FT 2-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 65%

SC Freiburg

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-0

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 6.84 - 0.24

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 SC Freiburg last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 13, conceded 10)

5 Union Berlin last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 2, conceded 17)

6 H2H (10): Union Berlin lead 5-1 (4D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 50%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours SC Freiburg with an estimated 65% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (6.84-0.24 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Union Berlin lead the head-to-head 5-1 (with 4 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. SC Freiburg have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 13, conceding 10), while Union Berlin have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 17).