Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

Fri 6 Nov, 19:30

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

LOW 44%

Hamburger SV

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.71 - 1.14

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Hamburger SV last 5 at home: 3W-0D-2L (scored 6, conceded 9)

5 Borussia Mönchengladbach last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 8, conceded 10)

6 H2H (10): Hamburger SV lead 4-2 (4D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 60%

7 Hamburger SV without: B. Nadir, N. Remberg (+10 more)

8 Borussia Mönchengladbach without: H. Bolin, N. Kuhn (+16 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Hamburger SV with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.71-1.14 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Hamburger SV lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 4 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Hamburger SV have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 9), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 10). Hamburger SV without: B. Nadir, N. Remberg (+10 more); Borussia Mönchengladbach without: H. Bolin, N. Kuhn (+16 more).