Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg

Sat 7 Nov, 14:30

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

HIGH 71%

Borussia Dortmund

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 2-1. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.28 - 0.28

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Borussia Dortmund last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 11, conceded 5)

5 SV Elversberg last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 5, conceded 10)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Borussia Dortmund with an estimated 71% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.28-0.28 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Borussia Dortmund have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 5), while SV Elversberg have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 10).