Arsenal vs Hull City

Sat 7 Nov, 15:00

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

HIGH 74%

Arsenal

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 3-0. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 9pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.08 - 0.37

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Arsenal last 3 at home: 3W-0D-0L (scored 7, conceded 1)

6 Hull City last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 4, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Arsenal lead 8-0 (2D), avg 3.1 goals, BTTS 40%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Arsenal with an estimated 74% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.08-0.37 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Arsenal than the model is — the blend sits 9 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Arsenal lead the head-to-head 8-0 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Arsenal have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 7, conceding 1), while Hull City have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 6).