Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim

Sat 31 Oct, 14:30

AI Prediction

LOW 42%

Werder Bremen

Predicted Winner

3-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.48 - 1.55

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Werder Bremen last 3 at home: 2W-1D-0L (scored 8, conceded 5)

6 1899 Hoffenheim last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): 1899 Hoffenheim lead 7-2 (1D), avg 3.4 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Werder Bremen without: F. Agu, S. Alvero (+14 more)

9 1899 Hoffenheim without: B. Conte, N. De Cat (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Werder Bremen with an estimated 42% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.48-1.55 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward 1899 Hoffenheim, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Werder Bremen, so treat this one with extra caution. 1899 Hoffenheim lead the head-to-head 7-2 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Werder Bremen have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 8, conceding 5), while 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 7). Werder Bremen without: F. Agu, S. Alvero (+14 more); 1899 Hoffenheim without: B. Conte, N. De Cat (+10 more).