Real Betis vs Malaga

Sat 31 Oct, 17:30

AI Prediction

HIGH 71%

Real Betis

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.67 - 0.41

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Real Betis last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 12, conceded 9)

5 Malaga last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 5, conceded 7)

6 H2H (10): Real Betis lead 6-4 (0D), avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Real Betis without: F. Bernal, J. Firpo (+6 more)

8 Malaga without: J. Cruz, J. Lobete (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Real Betis with an estimated 71% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.67-0.41 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Real Betis lead the head-to-head 6-4 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Real Betis have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 9), while Malaga have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 7). Real Betis without: F. Bernal, J. Firpo (+6 more); Malaga without: J. Cruz, J. Lobete (+12 more).