Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund

Sat 31 Oct, 17:30

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 69%

Bayern München

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.23 - 0.50

3 Bayern München last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 26, conceded 4)

4 Borussia Dortmund last 5 away: 3W-1D-1L (scored 6, conceded 4)

5 H2H (10): Bayern München lead 6-1 (3D), avg 3.7 goals, BTTS 80%

6 Bayern München without: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz (+6 more)

7 Borussia Dortmund without: E. Can, G. Konstantelias (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bayern München with an estimated 69% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (2.23-0.50 goals). The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Bayern München lead the head-to-head 6-1 (with 3 draws), averaging 3.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings. Bayern München have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 26, conceding 4), while Borussia Dortmund have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 4). Bayern München without: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz (+6 more); Borussia Dortmund without: E. Can, G. Konstantelias (+6 more).