FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg

Sat 31 Oct, 14:30

AI Prediction

LOW 37%

SC Freiburg

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.49 - 0.93

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 FC Augsburg last 5 at home: 1W-4D-0L (scored 10, conceded 7)

6 SC Freiburg last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): SC Freiburg lead 6-2 (2D), avg 3.1 goals, BTTS 60%

8 FC Augsburg without: J. Bah, N. Banks (+6 more)

9 SC Freiburg without: P. Treu, B. Yilmaz (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours SC Freiburg with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.49-0.93 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward FC Augsburg, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours SC Freiburg, so treat this one with extra caution. SC Freiburg lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. FC Augsburg have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 7), while SC Freiburg have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 7). FC Augsburg without: J. Bah, N. Banks (+6 more); SC Freiburg without: P. Treu, B. Yilmaz (+2 more).