Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart

Sat 31 Oct, 14:30

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 63%

Bayer Leverkusen

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 10pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.98 - 0.19

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bayer Leverkusen last 5 at home: 5W-0D-0L (scored 15, conceded 3)

6 VfB Stuttgart last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 7, conceded 3)

7 H2H (10): Bayer Leverkusen lead 3-2 (5D), avg 3.5 goals, BTTS 80%

8 Bayer Leverkusen without: L. Bade, E. Ben Seghir (+12 more)

9 VfB Stuttgart without: J. Diehl, L. Sauer (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bayer Leverkusen with an estimated 63% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.98-0.19 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Bayer Leverkusen runs 10 points above the market's fair price. Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 15, conceding 3), while VfB Stuttgart have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 3). Bayer Leverkusen lead the head-to-head 3-2 (with 5 draws), averaging 3.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings. Bayer Leverkusen without: L. Bade, E. Ben Seghir (+12 more); VfB Stuttgart without: J. Diehl, L. Sauer (+10 more).