FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen

Sat 24 Oct, 13:30

AI Prediction

LOW 41%

FSV Mainz 05

Predicted Winner

3-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.68 - 1.68

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 FSV Mainz 05 last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 10, conceded 8)

6 Werder Bremen last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 7, conceded 14)

7 H2H (10): Werder Bremen lead 5-3 (2D), avg 2.1 goals, BTTS 30%

8 FSV Mainz 05 without: D. Kohr, Silas (+6 more)

9 Werder Bremen without: F. Agu, S. Alvero (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours FSV Mainz 05 with an estimated 41% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.68-1.68 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours FSV Mainz 05, so treat this one with extra caution. Werder Bremen lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 30% of meetings. FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 8), while Werder Bremen have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 14). FSV Mainz 05 without: D. Kohr, Silas (+6 more); Werder Bremen without: F. Agu, S. Alvero (+14 more).