Lazio vs Parma

Sat 24 Oct, 18:45

AI Prediction

HIGH 70%

Lazio

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.12 - 0.22

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Lazio last 5 at home: 3W-2D-0L (scored 11, conceded 6)

5 Parma last 3 away: 0W-0D-3L (scored 1, conceded 7)

6 H2H (10): Lazio lead 7-1 (2D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Lazio without: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson (+6 more)

8 Parma without: P. Almqvist, N. Elphege (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Lazio with an estimated 70% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.12-0.22 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Lazio lead the head-to-head 7-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Lazio have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 6), while Parma have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 1, conceding 7). Lazio without: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson (+6 more); Parma without: P. Almqvist, N. Elphege (+6 more).