Wolves vs Watford

Sat 24 Oct, 14:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 69%

Wolves

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.48 - 0.39

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Wolves last 4 at home: 2W-1D-1L (scored 7, conceded 5)

5 Watford last 4 away: 0W-0D-4L (scored 1, conceded 9)

6 H2H (10): Wolves lead 5-3 (2D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Wolves without: R. Gomes, R. Jimenez (+12 more)

8 Watford without: T. Akomeah, M. Antonio (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Wolves with an estimated 69% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.48-0.39 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Wolves lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Wolves have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 7, conceding 5), while Watford have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 1, conceding 9). Wolves without: R. Gomes, R. Jimenez (+12 more); Watford without: T. Akomeah, M. Antonio (+8 more).