FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin

Sat 24 Oct, 13:30

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 50%

FC Augsburg

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 6.92 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 FC Augsburg last 5 at home: 2W-3D-0L (scored 12, conceded 8)

5 Union Berlin last 4 away: 2W-0D-2L (scored 5, conceded 13)

6 H2H (10): Union Berlin lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 40%

7 FC Augsburg without: N. Banks, S. Mounie (+4 more)

8 Union Berlin without: A. Ilic, A. Markgraf (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours FC Augsburg with an estimated 50% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (6.92-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. FC Augsburg have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 8), while Union Berlin have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 13). Union Berlin lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. FC Augsburg without: N. Banks, S. Mounie (+4 more); Union Berlin without: A. Ilic, A. Markgraf (+8 more).