SC Freiburg vs Bayern München

Sun 25 Oct, 16:30

AI Prediction

LOW 45%

Bayern München

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.06 - 0.50

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 SC Freiburg last 5 at home: 5W-0D-0L (scored 18, conceded 6)

6 Bayern München last 5 away: 2W-3D-0L (scored 11, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Bayern München lead 8-1 (1D), avg 3.9 goals, BTTS 60%

8 SC Freiburg without: Y. Engelhardt, B. Yilmaz (+2 more)

9 Bayern München without: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bayern München with an estimated 45% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.06-0.50 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward SC Freiburg, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bayern München, so treat this one with extra caution. Bayern München lead the head-to-head 8-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. SC Freiburg have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 18, conceding 6), while Bayern München have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 7). SC Freiburg without: Y. Engelhardt, B. Yilmaz (+2 more); Bayern München without: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz (+12 more).