Inter vs Fiorentina

Sun 25 Oct, 11:30

AI Prediction

HIGH 72%

Inter

Predicted Winner

7-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 6.67 - 1.67

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Inter last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 14, conceded 7)

5 Fiorentina last 3 away: 1W-0D-2L (scored 5, conceded 8)

6 H2H (10): Inter lead 6-2 (2D), avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Inter without: C. Jones, Luis Henrique (+10 more)

8 Fiorentina without: A. Atta, F. Parisi (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Inter with an estimated 72% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (6.67-1.67 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Inter lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Inter have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 14, conceding 7), while Fiorentina have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 8). Inter without: C. Jones, Luis Henrique (+10 more); Fiorentina without: A. Atta, F. Parisi (+6 more).