Marseille vs Le Havre

Sun 25 Oct, 16:15

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 65%

Marseille

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.55 - 1.09

3 Marseille last 4 at home: 1W-0D-3L (scored 7, conceded 6)

4 Le Havre last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 6, conceded 8)

5 H2H (7): Marseille lead 7-0 (0D), avg 4.1 goals, BTTS 71%

6 Marseille without: D. Cornelius, D. Cornelius

7 Le Havre without: E. Jelert, F. Mambimbi (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Marseille with an estimated 65% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (2.55-1.09 goals). The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Marseille lead the head-to-head 7-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 4.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 71% of meetings. Marseille have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 at home (scoring 7, conceding 6), while Le Havre have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 8). Marseille without: D. Cornelius, D. Cornelius; Le Havre without: E. Jelert, F. Mambimbi (+10 more).