1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen

Sun 25 Oct, 14:30

AI Prediction

LOW 47%

Bayer Leverkusen

Predicted Winner

3-4

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.00 - 3.50

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 1899 Hoffenheim last 5 at home: 2W-0D-3L (scored 11, conceded 10)

6 Bayer Leverkusen last 5 away: 3W-1D-1L (scored 14, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Bayer Leverkusen lead 6-3 (1D), avg 3.8 goals, BTTS 80%

8 1899 Hoffenheim without: N. De Cat, A. Hajdari (+6 more)

9 Bayer Leverkusen without: E. Ben Seghir, G. Doue (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bayer Leverkusen with an estimated 47% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.00-3.50 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bayer Leverkusen, so treat this one with extra caution. Bayer Leverkusen lead the head-to-head 6-3 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings. 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 10), while Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 14, conceding 8). 1899 Hoffenheim without: N. De Cat, A. Hajdari (+6 more); Bayer Leverkusen without: E. Ben Seghir, G. Doue (+10 more).