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Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05

Sat 19 Sept, 13:30

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 44%

FSV Mainz 05

Predicted Winner

0-15

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 14.81

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Borussia Mönchengladbach last 5: 2W-0D-3L (scored 10, conceded 13)

6 FSV Mainz 05 last 3 away: 2W-1D-0L (scored 17, conceded 3)

7 H2H (10): FSV Mainz 05 lead 3-1 (6D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Borussia Mönchengladbach without: J. Castrop, T. Kleindienst (+10 more)

9 FSV Mainz 05 without: D. Kohr, P. Nebel (+8 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours FSV Mainz 05 with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-14.81 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours FSV Mainz 05, so treat this one with extra caution. FSV Mainz 05 lead the head-to-head 3-1 (with 6 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 (scoring 10, conceding 13), while FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 17, conceding 3). Borussia Mönchengladbach without: J. Castrop, T. Kleindienst (+10 more); FSV Mainz 05 without: D. Kohr, P. Nebel (+8 more).