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Everton vs Ipswich

Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 61%

Everton

Predicted Winner

5-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 8pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 4.91 - 1.75

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Everton last 4 at home: 2W-2D-0L (scored 6, conceded 3)

6 Ipswich last 4 away: 3W-0D-1L (scored 11, conceded 10)

7 H2H (2): Everton lead 1-0 (1D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Everton without: C. Norgaard, H. Armstrong (+4 more)

9 Ipswich without: J. Taylor, A. Matusiwa (+2 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Everton with an estimated 61% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (4.91-1.75 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Everton runs 8 points above the market's fair price. Everton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 6, conceding 3), while Ipswich have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 10). Everton lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Everton without: C. Norgaard, H. Armstrong (+4 more); Ipswich without: J. Taylor, A. Matusiwa (+2 more).