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Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig

Sun 20 Sept, 13:30

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 48%

Bayer Leverkusen

Predicted Winner

6-0

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 6.05 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 RB Leipzig last 5 away: 1W-0D-4L (scored 9, conceded 12)

5 H2H (10): Bayer Leverkusen lead 6-3 (1D), avg 3.7 goals, BTTS 70%

6 Bayer Leverkusen without: M. Culbreath, G. Doue (+6 more)

7 RB Leipzig without: C. Baumgartner, M. Guiu (+6 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bayer Leverkusen with an estimated 48% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (6.05-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Bayer Leverkusen lead the head-to-head 6-3 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. RB Leipzig have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 12). Bayer Leverkusen without: M. Culbreath, G. Doue (+6 more); RB Leipzig without: C. Baumgartner, M. Guiu (+6 more).