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Norwich vs Bolton

Sun 20 Sept, 12:30

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 69%

Norwich

Predicted Winner

4-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.77 - 0.62

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Norwich last 4 at home: 3W-0D-1L (scored 11, conceded 5)

5 Bolton last 5 away: 0W-2D-3L (scored 3, conceded 9)

6 H2H (8): Norwich lead 6-1 (1D), avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 63%

7 Norwich without: A. Ahmed, L. Mahovo (+4 more)

8 Bolton without: L. Brunt, C. Forino-Joseph (+4 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Norwich with an estimated 69% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.77-0.62 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Norwich lead the head-to-head 6-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 63% of meetings. Norwich have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 11, conceding 5), while Bolton have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 9). Norwich without: A. Ahmed, L. Mahovo (+4 more); Bolton without: L. Brunt, C. Forino-Joseph (+4 more).