Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo

Sat 31 Oct, 15:15

AI Prediction

LOW 42%

Draw

Predicted Winner

1-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.25 - 0.29

4 Rayo Vallecano last 4 at home: 2W-1D-1L (scored 6, conceded 7)

5 Celta Vigo last 5 away: 1W-3D-1L (scored 3, conceded 3)

6 H2H (10): Celta Vigo lead 3-2 (5D), avg 1.6 goals, BTTS 30%

7 Rayo Vallecano without: A. Batalla, P. Ciss (+6 more)

8 Celta Vigo without: H. F. Cuenca Martinez, J. El Abdellaoui (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Draw with an estimated 42% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (0.25-0.29 goals). Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Rayo Vallecano, while the blended pick still favours Draw, so treat this one with extra caution. Rayo Vallecano have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 6, conceding 7), while Celta Vigo have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 3). Celta Vigo lead the head-to-head 3-2 (with 5 draws), averaging 1.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 30% of meetings. Rayo Vallecano without: A. Batalla, P. Ciss (+6 more); Celta Vigo without: H. F. Cuenca Martinez, J. El Abdellaoui (+10 more).