Valencia vs Villarreal

Sat 24 Oct, 16:30

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 52%

Villarreal

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.36 - 1.64

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Valencia last 5 at home: 0W-2D-3L (scored 2, conceded 9)

6 Villarreal last 5 away: 1W-0D-4L (scored 8, conceded 10)

7 H2H (10): Villarreal lead 5-2 (3D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Valencia without: S. Canos, J. Copete (+8 more)

9 Villarreal without: N. Pepe, C. Romero (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Villarreal with an estimated 52% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.36-1.64 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Villarreal, so treat this one with extra caution. Villarreal lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Valencia have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 2, conceding 9), while Villarreal have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 10). Valencia without: S. Canos, J. Copete (+8 more); Villarreal without: N. Pepe, C. Romero (+2 more).