Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

Sat 24 Oct, 12:00

AI Prediction

LOW 43%

Rayo Vallecano

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.56 - 1.22

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Rayo Vallecano last 3 at home: 2W-1D-0L (scored 6, conceded 4)

6 Elche last 5 away: 1W-3D-1L (scored 7, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): even, 2D, avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Rayo Vallecano without: A. Batalla, P. Ciss (+8 more)

9 Elche without: M. Aguado, M. Aguado

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Rayo Vallecano with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.56-1.22 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Rayo Vallecano, so treat this one with extra caution. Rayo Vallecano have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 6, conceding 4), while Elche have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 6). The head-to-head is even (4 win each, 2 draws in their last 10), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Rayo Vallecano without: A. Batalla, P. Ciss (+8 more); Elche without: M. Aguado, M. Aguado.