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Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano

Sat 19 Sept, 12:00

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 35%

Draw

Predicted Winner

1-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.80 - 0.58

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Osasuna last 4 at home: 1W-1D-2L (scored 1, conceded 4)

6 Rayo Vallecano last 5 away: 1W-0D-4L (scored 7, conceded 16)

7 H2H (10): Osasuna lead 6-3 (1D), avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Osasuna without: M. Gomez, J. Herrando (+6 more)

9 Rayo Vallecano without: A. Batalla, I. Palazon (+8 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Draw with an estimated 35% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.80-0.58 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Osasuna, while the blended pick still favours Draw, so treat this one with extra caution. Osasuna lead the head-to-head 6-3 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Osasuna have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 1, conceding 4), while Rayo Vallecano have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 16). Osasuna without: M. Gomez, J. Herrando (+6 more); Rayo Vallecano without: A. Batalla, I. Palazon (+8 more).