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Getafe vs Malaga

Sun 20 Sept, 12:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 54%

Getafe

Predicted Winner

2-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 8pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.53 - 0.15

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Getafe last 4 at home: 2W-2D-0L (scored 6, conceded 3)

6 Malaga last 4 away: 0W-1D-3L (scored 2, conceded 9)

7 H2H (10): Getafe lead 6-4 (0D), avg 1.8 goals, BTTS 20%

8 Getafe without: A. Abqar, Juanmi (+8 more)

9 Malaga without: J. Cajuste, M. Diarra (+12 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Getafe with an estimated 54% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.53-0.15 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Getafe runs 8 points above the market's fair price. Getafe lead the head-to-head 6-4 (with 0 draws), averaging 1.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings. Getafe have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 6, conceding 3), while Malaga have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 9). Getafe without: A. Abqar, Juanmi (+8 more); Malaga without: J. Cajuste, M. Diarra (+12 more).