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Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis

Sun 20 Sept, 16:30

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 40%

Real Betis

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.75 - 1.09

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Deportivo La Coruna last 4 at home: 1W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 4)

6 Real Betis last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 8, conceded 9)

7 H2H (8): Real Betis lead 3-1 (4D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 75%

8 Deportivo La Coruna without: Angelino, N. Carrillo (+2 more)

9 Real Betis without: D. Llorente, I. Losada (+4 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Real Betis with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.75-1.09 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Deportivo La Coruna, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Real Betis, so treat this one with extra caution. Real Betis lead the head-to-head 3-1 (with 4 draws), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 75% of meetings. Deportivo La Coruna have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 4, conceding 4), while Real Betis have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 9). Deportivo La Coruna without: Angelino, N. Carrillo (+2 more); Real Betis without: D. Llorente, I. Losada (+4 more).