Elche vs Real Madrid

Tue 15 Sept, 19:30

FT 2-3

AI Prediction

HIGH 77%

Real Madrid

Predicted Winner

1-3

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-3

Predicted: 1-3. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 0.67 - 2.68

3 Elche last 5 at home: 0W-3D-2L (scored 6, conceded 12)

4 Real Madrid last 5 away: 4W-0D-1L (scored 8, conceded 3)

5 Elche without: Y. Santiago, Y. Santiago

6 Real Madrid without: Eder Militao, F. Mendy (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Real Madrid with an estimated 77% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (0.67-2.68 goals). The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Elche have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 12), while Real Madrid have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 3). Elche without: Y. Santiago, Y. Santiago; Real Madrid without: Eder Militao, F. Mendy (+4 more).