Portsmouth vs Stoke City

Sat 7 Nov, 12:30

FT 1-2

AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Portsmouth

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.99 - 1.53

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Portsmouth last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 12, conceded 6)

6 Stoke City last 5 away: 4W-1D-0L (scored 8, conceded 4)

7 H2H (5): Stoke City lead 3-2 (0D), avg 3.8 goals, BTTS 60%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Portsmouth with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.99-1.53 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Portsmouth, so treat this one with extra caution. Portsmouth have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 6), while Stoke City have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 4). Stoke City lead the head-to-head 3-2 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings.