Derby vs Bolton

Fri 6 Nov, 20:00

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

LOW 48%

Bolton

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.61 - 1.95

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Derby last 5 at home: 0W-1D-4L (scored 2, conceded 9)

6 Bolton last 5 away: 3W-1D-1L (scored 8, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Derby lead 6-2 (2D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Derby without: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin (+14 more)

9 Bolton without: E. Erhahon, R. Hardie (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bolton with an estimated 48% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.61-1.95 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Derby, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bolton, so treat this one with extra caution. Derby lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Derby have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 at home (scoring 2, conceding 9), while Bolton have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 8). Derby without: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin (+14 more); Bolton without: E. Erhahon, R. Hardie (+10 more).