Bristol City vs Norwich

Sat 7 Nov, 12:30

FT 0-5

AI Prediction

LOW 46%

Norwich

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-5

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.67 - 1.55

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bristol City last 5 at home: 1W-0D-4L (scored 2, conceded 5)

6 Norwich last 5 away: 2W-0D-3L (scored 11, conceded 12)

7 H2H (10): Norwich lead 5-4 (1D), avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 50%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Norwich with an estimated 46% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.67-1.55 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Norwich, so treat this one with extra caution. Bristol City have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 at home (scoring 2, conceding 5), while Norwich have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 12). Norwich lead the head-to-head 5-4 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings.