Birmingham vs Swansea

Sat 7 Nov, 15:00

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 59%

Birmingham

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 3-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 8pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.07 - 0.97

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Swansea last 5 away: 2W-0D-3L (scored 5, conceded 12)

6 H2H (10): Birmingham lead 5-0 (5D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 60%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Birmingham with an estimated 59% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.07-0.97 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Birmingham runs 8 points above the market's fair price. Birmingham lead the head-to-head 5-0 (with 5 draws), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Swansea have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 12).