Stoke City vs Preston

Sat 31 Oct, 12:30

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 61%

Stoke City

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 8pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.89 - 0.58

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Stoke City last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 9, conceded 4)

6 Preston last 5 away: 0W-1D-4L (scored 4, conceded 13)

7 H2H (10): Preston lead 4-2 (4D), avg 1.9 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Stoke City without: A. Ampah, E. Bocat (+8 more)

9 Preston without: H. Clarke, L. Gibbs (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Stoke City with an estimated 61% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.89-0.58 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Stoke City runs 8 points above the market's fair price. Preston lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 4 draws), averaging 1.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Stoke City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 4), while Preston have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 13). Stoke City without: A. Ampah, E. Bocat (+8 more); Preston without: H. Clarke, L. Gibbs (+10 more).