Norwich vs Watford

Sat 31 Oct, 12:30

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 64%

Norwich

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.12 - 0.39

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Norwich last 4 at home: 1W-0D-3L (scored 5, conceded 7)

5 Watford last 5 away: 0W-0D-5L (scored 1, conceded 10)

6 H2H (10): even, 0D, avg 3.3 goals, BTTS 60%

7 Norwich without: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo (+10 more)

8 Watford without: M. Antonio, K. Baah (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Norwich with an estimated 64% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.12-0.39 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Norwich have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 at home (scoring 5, conceding 7), while Watford have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 1, conceding 10). The head-to-head is even (5 win each, 0 draws in their last 10), averaging 3.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Norwich without: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo (+10 more); Watford without: M. Antonio, K. Baah (+8 more).