Sheffield Utd vs Derby

Sat 24 Oct, 11:30

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 56%

Sheffield Utd

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.93 - 0.83

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Sheffield Utd last 4 at home: 2W-0D-2L (scored 7, conceded 6)

5 Derby last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 8)

6 H2H (10): Sheffield Utd lead 8-2 (0D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Sheffield Utd without: M. Doherty, J. Shackleton (+2 more)

8 Derby without: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin (+20 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Sheffield Utd with an estimated 56% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.93-0.83 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Sheffield Utd lead the head-to-head 8-2 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Sheffield Utd have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 7, conceding 6), while Derby have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 8). Sheffield Utd without: M. Doherty, J. Shackleton (+2 more); Derby without: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin (+20 more).